Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 0.682160 0.793705 0.917293 1.064325 1.234441 1.425052 1.654826
2025-02-09 0.509027 0.660698 0.847279 1.093438 1.409497 1.801571 2.324947
2025-02-16 0.410808 0.576334 0.795649 1.106973 1.537160 2.110385 2.932317
2025-02-23 0.341333 0.510268 0.748061 1.106340 1.631816 2.373757 3.500926
2025-03-02 0.288004 0.454995 0.702731 1.095784 1.702768 2.603720 4.042406
2025-03-09 0.249517 0.414198 0.670268 1.095750 1.783744 2.851417 4.633598
2025-03-16 0.210842 0.366367 0.618913 1.056774 1.795373 2.989363 5.065052
2025-03-23 0.199408 0.361164 0.634350 1.126585 1.989245 3.436125 6.045272
2025-03-30 0.172897 0.325870 0.594143 1.095695 2.007427 3.591416 6.549457
2025-04-06 0.149808 0.293228 0.553894 1.058563 2.008251 3.713977 7.006229
2025-04-13 0.130795 0.265396 0.518492 1.025060 2.010142 3.836116 7.472369
2025-04-20 0.120128 0.252151 0.508459 1.037718 2.099128 4.125572 8.280893
2025-04-27 0.115940 0.251673 0.523658 1.102912 2.300509 4.654634 9.623313
2025-05-04 0.108512 0.243535 0.522720 1.135790 2.442079 5.084964 10.824483
2025-05-11 0.100146 0.232146 0.513509 1.149951 2.546147 5.450710 11.934604
2025-05-18 0.091504 0.218866 0.498458 1.149298 2.617874 5.756273 12.950757
2025-05-25 0.083059 0.204826 0.479903 1.138339 2.665262 6.014577 13.892846
2025-06-01 0.076349 0.193914 0.466946 1.138304 2.736777 6.332174 15.001373
2025-06-08 0.067726 0.177130 0.438291 1.097842 2.709802 6.426859 15.611963
2025-06-15 0.066887 0.179688 0.455801 1.170315 2.958732 7.177183 17.836618
2025-06-22 0.060106 0.166021 0.432102 1.138247 2.949820 7.324067 18.634912
2025-06-29 0.053728 0.152515 0.407106 1.099699 2.919974 7.417183 19.311444
2025-07-06 0.048223 0.140595 0.384670 1.064916 2.895419 7.520151 20.023723